Markets, from first principles

Part I — The map

You are not picking stocks; you are reading the weather, then choosing what to wear.

• Regimes as weather: why the season matters more than the stockWhat a market regime is, why it drives more of a portfolio's return than security selection, and the four seasons of markets read off two dials.issued 2026-07-05 · established framework
• The five domino chains behind most crises and recoveriesMost market storms follow one of five recurring causal chains — tightening, recovery, inflation trap, reserve drain, dollar cascade — traced step by step.issued 2026-07-05 · consensus view
• Regime speed and interweaving: reading the weather without pretending precisionHow fast regimes move, how short cycles nest inside longer ones, and how to identify the active regime honestly — without claiming false precision.issued 2026-07-05 · consensus view
• The asset menu: everything an investor can actually ownThe complete menu of investable asset classes — where each one's return comes from, how each behaves in every market season, and who each suits.issued 2026-07-05 · consensus view

Part II — The mental tools

Return is only half a number; the other half is what you risked to get it.

• The problem with average returnsWhy an average return can drown a portfolio: arithmetic versus geometric returns, volatility drag, and the case for risk-adjusted thinking.issued 2026-07-05 · established framework
• Markowitz and broken correlationsMean-variance optimisation, the efficient frontier, and the four predictable ways diversification fails — including why correlations break in crises.issued 2026-07-05 · established framework
• Kelly and fractional sizingThe Kelly criterion gives the mathematically optimal bet size — and why disciplined practitioners deliberately bet half or a quarter of it.issued 2026-07-05 · established framework
• From VaR to CVaRVaR tells you where the fence is; CVaR tells you how far you fall past it. Why coherence (Acerbi–Tasche) makes the second number the honest one.issued 2026-07-05 · established framework
• Liquidity cycles and the Singapore translationHowell's global liquidity cycle — why money flow leads asset prices — and the Singapore translation: MAS steers the exchange rate, not interest rates.issued 2026-07-05 · practitioner judgement
• Tail hedging and the yield illusionBhansali's case for buying insurance when the sky is clear — and why much of what is sold as 'yield' is a short volatility position in disguise.issued 2026-07-05 · practitioner judgement
• Factor investingValue, momentum, quality, and low volatility — the market's recurring habits, why they pay, and the tension that makes value and momentum work best together.issued 2026-07-05 · established framework
• The liquidity ladderPástor–Stambaugh liquidity risk: sellability is a priced dimension of every asset — a ladder from cash through T-bills, SSBs and CPF to locked products.issued 2026-07-05 · established framework

Part III — Positioning & flows

Prices move on who is forced to act next, not on who is right.

• Positioning and flows: reading who is in the tradeWhy crowded trades reverse violently, how to read the COT report, and how flow decomposition reveals who is actually moving the price.issued 2026-07-05 · consensus view

Part IV — The discipline

Direction is a decision; size is a discipline; the floor is untouchable.

• The discipline layer: direction, size, and the untouchable floorThree separations that recur in disciplined capital practice: neutral as the honest default, size that follows evidence, and a reserve floor that never moves.issued 2026-07-05 · practitioner judgement

Where this leads

The guide composes into one screenshotable page — the right questions to ask about any investment. Thedecision tools turn Parts IV–V into checklists you can run in a live meeting.